Mo Salah: The Autumn/Winter Soldier

The Egyptian might be a man for all seasons, but he is at his best when the fixture list is intense

Mohammed Salah loves the month of October.  I don’t know if it’s the clocks going back, the leaves turning brown or the Halloween costumes, but some of his most iconic strikes have happened in the month: a beautiful penalty box pirouette against Genk in 2019; the goal of the season in the biggest game of the season at home to Manchester City in 2021; a carbon copy a week later at Watford; the sublime substitute hat trick at Ibrox in 2022; twisting Joao Cancelo’s blood against City in 2023. Just last year there were back-to-back braces against Brighton and Everton on either side of the break, and this season featured a trademark curler against Bologna and a beautiful move at Arsenal.

Along with the quality, it’s also about quantity. October is Salah’s most prolific month as a Liverpool player, a mark even more impressive when acknowledging there’s usually an international break and it’s always one of the most intense periods of the season, with Premier League, Champions League & League Cup meaning three games in a week, every week. 

At a time when injuries have taken their toll on the forward line, it’s reassuring to know that this is when Liverpool’s talisman comes into his own. After what was considered a pleasant start to the campaign, the fixtures have ramped up in difficulty, with better opponents meaning fewer chances. Liverpool have recorded an XG of under 2 in back-to-back league games for the first time this season, with the only other instance being the anomalous defeat by Nottingham Forest. Arsenal and Brighton made scoring more challenging, but Salah found a way. 

October may be his favourite month but he’s no slouch in November either, as he proved with his 48th Premier League winning goal against Brighton on Saturday. His form in November maintains his career average of 0.58 goals per game across his seven seasons. It’s a good thing too, as the tough games keep coming, with Bayer Leverkusen, Aston Villa & Real Madrid on either side of the next international break. His highest tally in any calendar month of eight came in November 2017, as Maribor, West Ham, Southampton, Chelsea & Stoke City bore witness to the birth of a  Liverpool legend.

Another mark of Salah's genius is his ability to keep those standards high throughout the season. The turmoil caused by the Covid outbreak and the Qatar World Cup means that club football has occurred in every month of the year during his time at Anfield, but of the months to feature at least 20 Liverpool games, only once does his level drop below a goal every other game. That month being May - a time when trophies are decided - is far from ideal, but it’s a statistic skewed by the 2019 Champions League Final on June 1st.

Having scored in the opening fixture of each month in 24/25, Arne Slot will hope Salah maintains that record when Manchester City come to town on December 1st. We already know how much he loves the Christmas period, and it’s reflected in the numbers. The mark of 0.67 goals per game in December is his second highest, reinforcing the point that the Egyptian comes to the fore when the games are coming thick and fast. 

Not only has Salah played more games in the final month of the year than in any other, but these games represent an important staging post in any season. So many Premier League points are on offer, and there’s usually the conclusion of the Champions League group stage. Even with the final group games bleeding into January 2025 this term, December will be the time to set the platform for a true trophy assault in the second half of the season, especially considering the League Cup Quarter Final.

In his seven full seasons, 42.65% of Salah’s goals have come between October 1st and New Year’s Eve, when 35.81% of his career Liverpool games have occurred. This season he already has four goals in seven games, so there’s a strong chance that this trend continues.

Alongside that trip to St Mary’s and hosting City, Liverpool have nine fixtures in December, with trips to Newcastle, Everton, Girona, Spurs & West Ham and home matches with Fulham and Leicester. The Reds acquired eight points from a possible eighteen from the six corresponding fixtures last season, so improvement will be needed to maintain their place at the top of the tree at home and in Europe come New Year’s Day.

The hope is that Federico Chiesa and Diogo Jota will be fit enough to feature during that time, but even if they aren’t, it’s comforting to know that Liverpool can rely on their Autumn/Winter soldier.