The best things come to those who wait

Is the patient play under Arne Slot a more reliable route to success than the swashbuckling starts of Jurgen Klopp?

Patience - apparently it’s a virtue. I’m guessing no one told Liverpool’s last manager, as patience was something that Jürgen Klopp didn’t have in abundance - either with reporters or with football matches. The German’s frequently referenced ‘heavy metal football’ required a fast start, enacted by a high press, alongside direct running and passing to put the opposition under immediate pressure. One of the biggest differences in the early stages of the Arne Slot era is the use of patience - waiting for the right moment to punch rather than running out attempting to throw haymakers.

While the results have been undeniably impressive, some fans have complained of boredom. Fast starts get the crowd engaged, which was another Klopp hallmark. A febrile Anfield is a key weapon in the arsenal of any Liverpool boss, and while Slot hasn’t sought to seduce the crowd explicitly, he’s smart enough to know that it helps his team if they’re onside, and the best way to achieve that is an early goal. From there, it’s much easier to control the game from the lead. 

The trouble is that theory only works if the fast start leads to a goal. At the end of Klopp’s reign, that didn’t happen often enough. 

Whoscored shows that In 23/24 Liverpool ranked 19th in the Premier League for goals scored in the first fifteen minutes, with only Sheffield United unable to better the Reds’ tally of three goals. Worse still, they conceded eight goals in the same period. Six teams conceded more, but taking goal difference into account, the mark of -5 is only above our hapless friends from Sheffield.

Slot’s approach to the early stages has been more of a fact-finding mission.  When I asked him before the game with Wolves about the fast starts of Gary O’Neill’s side, his response was:

“After 15-20 minutes, the team that plays the best football gets the ball a lot and starts to play”. 

Trent Alexander-Arnold revealed his new Head Coach gives the team multiple scenarios, and the first twenty minutes are used to work out which one is playing out and how to combat it accordingly:

“There’s all different variations and he gives us that information throughout the week, throughout the game, leading up to the game. He paints scenarios so we have answers for everything”.

Sometimes, it doesn’t take that long to work out. At Selhurst Park, Diogo Jota scored Liverpool’s earliest goal of the season, having unlocked the secret to finding the spaces in Oliver Glasner’s set-up in no time. Without the ball, Palace’s 3-4-3 formation became a 5-2-3, with the wing backs tucking in beside the three centre-backs. Determined not to give up the middle of the pitch, they were often stationed along the width of the penalty area, leaving acres of space on the flanks for Liverpool’s wide men. 

With Kostas Tsimikas occupying that space 35 yards from goal, rather than swinging in a cross that the defence was primed to deal with, the Greek recycles the ball back to Ryan Gravenberch, who finds Virgil Van Dijk in the centre circle, again prompting Palace to clog the central areas. Just as the pace slows to a walk, Tsimikas spots the moment to spring into action. Taking Van Dijk’s return ball first-time, he slides the perfect ball between wing back and centre back to the onrushing Cody Gakpo, undetected on the touchline. From there, it’s about the Dutchman’s precise cross and the timing and precision of the wily Portuguese. 

Jota’s strike was Liverpool’s second in the opening quarter of an hour this season, and they are yet to concede. Many people believe that the mental and physical toll of going behind and having to dig out a win again and again put paid to last season’s title challenge, and contributed to the ultimately insurmountable injury list. At that point, jealous glances were cast towards North London and Manchester, as Arsenal and Manchester City appeared able to take control of games while rarely looking troubled.

Their rate of conceding first (8 and 11 times respectively per Soccerstats) were better than Liverpool (16). However, it’s in those opening fifteen minutes where the difference was stark. Mikel Arteta found another way to copy Pep Guardiola, as both sides recorded 12 goals scored compared with 4 conceded in the opening block. Fascinatingly, this season City have caught Liverpool’s disease. They have trailed in all four home league games so far, as both Ipswich and Brentford have stunned the Etihad crowd early on, while Fulham waited until the 26th minute to take the lead. With the Spaniard favouring a smaller squad than most, it will be interesting to see how it plays out across the season.

Despite this newfound love of patience, Slot’s Liverpool can still be direct. It makes sense to utilise the long passing potential of all of the first-choice back five. Especially when they’re passing to players like Mohamed Salah & Luis Diaz, equipped with strength and skill to trap long balls and hold off attackers, allied to speed and intelligence to burst away when needed, but also realise when the best move is to lay it off to a nearby teammate and run into space. Salah’s goal against Ipswich and the first and third strikes against Bournemouth illustrate that element of the gameplan - one which would already be familiar to this group of players.

Both managers favour the man on the ball making the ‘best possible move’, but have different interpretations of what that means. For Klopp, the best move was the one with the highest potential of putting his team in a position to score - often a risky first time through ball. Think of Jordan Henderson’s trademark first-time flick

over the top into space, hoping Salah or Trent was there to run onto it.  For Slot, the best move allows his players to get into scoring position while keeping the ball, with an eye on the worst-case scenario of losing it. 

This means that a lot of time Liverpool’s possession would appear to be slow, almost turgid, in comparison to what fans are used to. “Move it quicker” has always been a familiar shout that echoes around Anfield, along with “Attack, attack, attack”, but at present it’s as if the players are wearing earplugs.

Virgil Van Dijk, widely acknowledged to remain the benchmark for defenders across the league and beyond, has been literally strolling around the pitch this season. Chris Collinson of BBC Sport noted that the Liverpool captain ranks in the league-wide top five for distance and time spent walking - 22.9km, equating to 75.2% of his time on the pitch. Our instinct as fans is to assume that this is bad, but think about it - if your defenders are sprinting, nine times out of ten it’s towards their own goal to attempt to stop an opponent’s attack. Less time running means fewer attacks faced. Two goals conceded in seven Premier League games appears to back up that theory.

And yet, Slot’s philosophy, like that of his predecessor, isn’t without its flaws. Showing patience to find the right time to shoot inevitably leads to fewer shots. Per Statmuse, 15.17 shots per league game isn’t an insignificant amount, but it’s a considerable drop from 20.79 last year. And while the always excellent Josh Williams notes in his latest article:

“Opportunities to score are less frequent of late, but when they do arrive, they seem to be pretty glaring for the most part”,

just as with Klopp’s plan that only works when those chances are taken. 

25% of Liverpool’s 16 shots at Crystal Palace were defined by Sofascore as Big Chances, with an XG value above 0.15. While the Big Chances metric isn’t always reliable, anyone who watched the game will instantly be able to recall the four chances in question, and most observers would agree they belong in the category marked “he should score from there”.

Three of those four fell to the matchwinner Diogo Jota, widely regarded as the club’s best finisher. That only one of those four was converted became the catalyst for a nervy end to the match, exacerbated by the injury to Alisson and the subsequent debut for Vitezlav Jaros.

Liverpool’s inability to kill the game off when presented with the opportunity has become a running theme over the last three games, in contrast to the comfortable progression of the first four league victories. Slot was keen to stress this when I asked him about it ahead of the game with Bologna, and no doubt the point will be hammered home again based on what we’ve seen since. 

Ultimately, whether a manager favours quality or quantity of shots, chaos or control, the key to making any strategy successful in football is converting those chances when they arrive. I would argue that it’s the most significant difference between success and failure in football. 

Arne Slot will no doubt be as frustrated as anyone at his side’s current inefficiency, but there’ll be no hairdryers delivered at Kirkby (If he even owns one). He’s already told us he doesn’t lose his temper very often, so expect him to show his players patience. I suspect he’s hoping Liverpool fans can do the same as they get used to this new way of trying to win football matches.